Research as a base for investment decisions

Retail is suffering across Europe! No, especially as generalized statements indicate a general trend, but a more in-depth market analysis reveals major differences within the EU member states and the UK. The fact is that there are many solutions in the largest retail sub-segment, shopping centers, to "return to pre-pandemic figures". However, this is where the first error in thinking lies: it was already foreseeable in the middle of the last decade that the times of steadily rising transaction volumes and increasing customer frequency had reached their peak - on a European average, mind you. There was hope immediately after the pandemic. However, this turned out to be a classic catch-up effect - in combination with the turnaround in interest rates, the war and consumer restraint.

The intense inflation that started in 2022, coupled with fast rise of interest rates, ultimately caused real estate transaction volume to collapse. We entered year 2023 with a very quiet market after the rapid increase in yields, and despite high hopes, the market did not show signs of recovery at any point. Last year’s transaction volume resulted in ca. EUR 2.5 billion, closely resembling the levels seen in the record weak years after the financial crisis.