Real estate outlook for 2026 is driven by structural forces such as the defence economy, urbanisation, housing shortages and sustainability, creating pockets of resilience. Appetite is improving, yet uncertainty calls for defensive positioning and patience for a gradual recovery. Catella’s House view highlights investable opportunities and clear convictions to guide investors through the next cycle.
Affordable housing is more than an imperative – it is a structural necessity of Europe’s residential markets. Vacancy rates remain chronically low, while development pipelines are constrained by land scarcity and regulatory complexity. The higher financing costs, amongst other factors, have pushed residential demand towards rental housing. This imbalance creates a clear opportunity: predictable long-term income at near-full occupancy – even during economic uncertainty.
Operational living spans flexible living concepts across all age groups such as student housing, co-living, micro-living, serviced apartments and senior housing. These niches share common traits: strong demand for smaller units in dense urban areas, short rental cycles offering flexibility, and dynamic pricing models that allow rapid inflation pass-through. Structural drivers such as ageing populations, demographic shifts, evolving lifestyles, and digitalisation further reinforce this strategy.
Retail and logistics are equally important pillars of omni-channel retailing. Together, they form a modern ecosystem, balancing consumer-facing nodes with fulfilment infrastructure. Retail is resurfacing after a decade of a sharp decline, offering high income returns. In logistics, long-term fundamentals remain solid: continuous e-commerce penetration, logistics network reconfiguration but also increasing demand for near-shoring and manufacturing drive our strategic conviction across the whole supply chain.
The ongoing “flight to quality” continues to support demand for central locations. Moreover, sustainability compliance is no longer optional: green-certified offices command rental premium and enjoy higher occupancy. This is set against a backdrop where overall take-up remains constrained, and business productivity is to become an important driver of growth as AI and tech‑related investments accelerate.
