News and Press Releases

I fielded a question at an investor meeting this week: “What should you do when your gut feeling says the stock market cannot rise any further but the interest rate on deposits is still zero?” I think there are many of us who can feel these reservations. The big underlying issue is how we feel about the economy. Is this just a pause or are we heading for a fall, and in that case how steep a fall? Economic fluctuations are tricky. They rarely come when you expect them, and they are even more rarely calm and rational since the market constantly overreacts. And both Brexit and a trade war are lurking in the shadows, reinforcing the uncertainty. Nonetheless, the stock market has been exceptionally strong at the start of the year and it is difficult to find good alternatives to shares when interest rates are so low. So, what should we turn to if we have that gut feeling the questioner expressed at the seminar?

Catella Fondförvaltning AB today publishes the funds' annual report for 2018. 

After a gloomy end to 2018 the new stock market year has begun very strongly. The US Federal Reserve has taken a softer stance and there are positive signals from the US-China trade talks. The reporting season was largely as expected, with an absence of negative news, and a Fed statement was enough to lift the stock market, say Catella's equity fund managers.

The Catella Nordic Long Short Equity (RC) hedge fund had a tough time last year. It fell by 13.8 percent and underperformed both the Nordic stock index and global hedge fund indexes. Although the fund has demonstrated a positive return of almost 32 percent since its inception in December 2010, and an average annual return of 3.6 percent over the same period, Catella Fonder decided to realign the fund's strategy and management in January 2019.

A large exposure, and a long-term holding that we have highlighted before, is care company Ambea. Since the company has just completed its acquisition of Aleris and reported for 2018 alongside its sector colleagues Humana and Attendo, it feels natural to look forward to 2019 and the coming 2020s.

The equity market has begun 2019 strongly after a gloomy end to last year, but in large parts of the world there are signs of weaker growth. The question is whether this is a temporary blip, caused by inventory build-up, or whether a longer decline is on the way.

Catella has during recent years gradually developed its portfolio management with increased focus on sustainability and absolute return strategies. The performance outcome in 2018 did not live up to our expectations and we are not satisfied, especially in the case of the fund Catella Nordic Long/Short Equity. Therefore, we will carry out a number of changes in our portfolio management by reallocating resources within the portfolio management team.

“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” Karl Kristian Steincke

Jack Bogle of Vanguard once said, “Half the time, I wonder why I have so much in stocks, and other times I wonder why I have so little.” The quotation rather neatly sums up the past year, but also investment decisions in general.

After several years of stable growth, global financial markets once again demonstrated their idiosyncrasy, and one word sums up 2018: Challenging.